There’s no guaranteed way to make money betting on the NBA, but there are strategies that can help you win over time. You don’t have to use all these strategies. The most important thing is that you make informed choices rather than just going with your gut.
Fade the Public
Public opinion, news stories, and other bettors have a huge impact on betting lines. If the public has gone all in on one team, you can make a lot of money betting against them. In other words, it’s profitable to “fade the public.” This is hard to do though, so try to focus on big games with heavy action on the favourites.
Spotting Underdog Value
NBA underdogs cover spreads more often than you’d expect. That said, you can usually tell when an underdog might overperform. For example, if the favourite is playing back-to-back or on the tail end of a long road trip, they will be fatigued, which gives the underdog an advantage—especially if they’re playing at home.
Use Advanced Stats
Basketball has more advanced stats than pretty much any other sport. Use them. Look beyond the counting stats to things like pace of play, usage rate, true shooting percentage, and other more advanced stats. If you know what these stats are and what they mean, you’ll have a massive leg up compared to the average NBA bettor.
Closing Line Value (CLV)
The closing line refers to the line at tip-off. Ask any bettor, and they’ll tell you that closing line bets often have the worst value. Your goal is to beat the closing line value (CLV) by getting in early on good bets before other bettors get the chance to place their bets and affect the market.